Are the better traders closer to 100% winning trades, or is that just the way it seems? In contrast, the closer the traders are to 0%; it would seem that they are worse. There is more to trading than winning the most possible trades, even though that seems peculiar. This article will hopefully help fill you in on why I would argue that a 95% win rate is infinitely worse than a 65% win rate.
First we’ll take a look at traders with a low win rate. We will classify 0% to ~40% as low. If a trader fits into this range, then the closer they are to zero probably means the worse they are. Most traders in this lower range are losing traders. You will occasionally find a trader who attempts to catch very large moves with very tight stops. This type of trader may have an extremely low win % and still be a very successful trader.
Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept.
Our final grouping is in the very high range of a percentage of 70 and above. Most people want to fall on the bandwagon of a trader who is close to 100%. Most people are making a mistake; they should actually align themselves with the trader of a much more modest % win rate. Why is that, you may ask? The reason for the high win percentage of these traders is that they are most of the time taking profits off the table as they appear. A working plan if they also cut their losses in the same way. Any trader, though with a 95 % plus win rate is not following this plan. They do not accept small losses and go forward with their trading day. Oh no, they allow a loser to run rampant for all eternity and may even add to that position in some circumstances. You can see that this in time will wipe out many months of winning trades in one blow and the results are disastrous. For every 500 pip winners obtained one at a time, one 500 pip loser negates them all. And yet, this trader falls into our “winning” range of over 99% winning trades and is in reality a big loser.
Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I’m quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute.
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